The Delivery-Risk Ranking: 20 South Florida Projects by Construction Status — Q4 2026
Every sales gallery quotes a delivery year. Concrete does not negotiate. This ranking sorts 20 tracked South Florida projects into four risk tiers by what has actually been built and financed as of September 2026 — the framework buyers should use before wiring a deposit against any promised date. Method: Tier 1 = topped out; Tier 2 = vertical construction underway; Tier 3 = ground broken / financing closed; Tier 4 = selling with no verified construction milestone. Within tiers, sooner published delivery ranks higher.
Tier 1 — Topped out: the date is earned
| Project | Market | Milestone | Published delivery |
| Rosewood Residences Hillsboro Beach | Hillsboro Beach | Topped out Feb 2026 | Early 2027 |
| The Perigon | Miami Beach | Topped out Mar 2026 | 2027 |
| Waldorf Astoria Pompano Beach | Pompano Beach | Topped out May 2026 | 2027 |
| Cipriani Residences Miami | Brickell | Topped off Jul 2026 · 80%+ sold | Summer 2027 |
| South Flagler House | West Palm Beach | Topped out Nov 2025 | Late 2026–2027 |
| Ocean House Surfside | Surfside | Topped out Aug 2026 | 2027 |
Tier 1: remaining risk is finish-out and inspections, not structure.
Tier 2 — Vertical: real, with runway risk
| Project | Market | Milestone | Published delivery |
| Mr. C Residences | West Palm Beach | 16 of 27 floors (Aug 2026) · 85%+ sold | 2027 |
| Villa Miami | Edgewater | 21 of 56 floors (Jan 2026) | Late 2027 |
| Olara | West Palm Beach | Vertical · $175M presold | Q4 2026–2027 |
| Rivage Bal Harbour | Bal Harbour | Under construction | 2027 |
| Waldorf Astoria Miami | Downtown Miami | Under construction (supertall) | 2027 |
| St. Regis Brickell | Brickell | Under construction | 2027 |
| Bentley Residences | Sunny Isles Beach | Passed level 7 of 62 (Jun 2026) · $630M loan | 2028 |
Tier 2: structure rising; compare floors built against floors promised and the calendar.
Tier 3 — Ground broken / financed
| Project | Market | Milestone | Published delivery |
| Ritz-Carlton Residences WPB | West Palm Beach | Broke ground Mar 2026 · $200M loan | 2028 |
| The Lincoln | Coconut Grove | Started Jun 2026 · $58M loan · 40%+ sold | Q3 2028 |
| Shorecrest | West Palm Beach | Broke ground Apr 2026 | 2027 |
| Four Seasons Coconut Grove | Coconut Grove | Sales launched | 2027 |
Tier 3: financing verified; the calendar test comes with vertical progress.
Tier 4 — Selling, no verified milestone
| Project | Market | Status | Published delivery |
| 619 Brickell (Nobu) | Brickell | Selling | 2031 |
| Delano Residences | Downtown Miami | Selling | 2031 |
| Faena Residences | Miami River | Selling ($250M penthouse collection) | 2029 |
Tier 4 is not an accusation — long-dated projects are supposed to be here. Risk arises when a near-dated promise sits in this tier.
How should buyers use this ranking?
Match the tier to the promise. A 2027 date in Tier 1 is bankable; a 2027 date in Tier 3 deserves hard questions; a 2031 date in Tier 4 is simply honest. Deposit exposure should scale the same way — Florida escrow rules protect the first 10% differently from construction-usable funds, covered in our deposits guide.
One more signal: between August and September 2026 we recorded no formal date slips among tracked 2027 claimants — but five of fourteen 2027 claims are concrete-verified. The other nine have four quarters to earn their dates. We re-run this ranking quarterly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which South Florida projects are most likely to deliver on time?
The topped-out tier: Rosewood Hillsboro, The Perigon, Waldorf Pompano, Cipriani, South Flagler House and Ocean House Surfside — structure complete, dates targeted for 2026–2027 (as of September 2026).
Have any major projects announced delays in 2026?
Between August and September 2026, no formal delivery-date changes were recorded among the fourteen tracked projects claiming 2027. The risk is concentrated in claims not yet backed by vertical construction.
What is the difference between topping out and topping off?
Interchangeable in practice: the structural frame has reached full height. It is the strongest single schedule signal in pre-construction — remaining work is enclosure, interiors and inspections.
How protected is my deposit if a project is delayed?
Florida law requires the first 10% held in escrow; amounts above 10% may be used for construction with proper disclosure. Delay alone rarely triggers refund rights — your contract’s outside date does. Have a Florida condo attorney read it before signing.
Should I avoid Tier 4 projects entirely?
No — long-dated projects (2029–2031) belong there naturally, often with the friendliest pricing and deposit terms. The red flag is a near-term delivery promise without a construction milestone behind it.
How often is this ranking updated?
Quarterly, with monthly milestone tracking in the Delivery Calendar series. Status lines here are as of September 21, 2026.